The National Weather Service said there is a high chance of widespread rain over Los Angeles County this weekend –– with light intensities spread out across many hours.
There are no major flooding risks, except a 5% to 10% chance of significant debris in burn scars for Los Angeles and Ventura County, the weather service said. Isolated heavy rain measuring up to 0.5 inches an hour is also expected.
Meanwhile, Santa Ana winds are expected to last through at least Friday morning, with the weather service extending its red flag fire weather warning until Friday at 10 a.m. across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
The ground in LA hasn’t seen a drop all month, so the moderate amount of rain in the forecast will be welcome if it comes at a pace that can be absorbed by the burn-scarred ground. A slow, steady stream would be a relief for everyone. But rain that comes in brief blasts could create flash flooding that would loosen soil and debris on charred hillsides, sending it tumbling toward decimated neighborhoods.
“It behaves more like cement; the ground can’t accept the water so it all goes to runoff immediately,” said Ariel Cohen, the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.
“It could result in fast-moving flows of mud, rock, and fire debris that all conglomerate and spread quickly downhill,” said Cohen. “It has the potential to be damaging as it does so, taking down other structures and certainly could be a threat to life and property.”
Officials say they are prepared this time
Local and state authorities – stung by criticism they didn’t do enough to prevent the wildfire devastation – say they are ready for complications the rain may bring.
“These communities have already endured unimaginable loss – we are taking action against further harm,” Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said in a statement Tuesday.
More than 250,000 sandbags are positioned in flood-prone areas, the California Department of Water Resources said, and pits called “debris dams” were dug into hillsides to catch branches and sediment that comes loose from the mountain during rains.
In a video message Thursday, Los Angeles County Fire Department Chief Deputy David Richardson advised those in areas at risk of being hit by landslides to “obtain sandbags ahead of time” and know how to shut off all utilities at home, in case of an emergency.
Sandbags are available at all fire stations, Richardson said.
“Stay away from areas susceptible to flooding. Do not attempt to enter moving water. Do not try to rescue someone who is being swept away. Instead, call 911,” he said.
There is no doubt that Los Angeles needs rain. Even without the wildfires, the county is now in extreme drought for the first time in four years. “The abysmal start to the water year continues over much of southern California, southern Nevada, and Utah, and into Arizona and New Mexico,” the US Drought Monitor said.
While the sizes of the devastating Palisades and Eaton Fires have not increased in over a week, the Hughes Fire near Castaic Lake on the northern edge of Los Angeles County burned more than 10,000 acres in a day.
Meanwhile, two new fires were reported Thursday afternoon in San Diego County –– the Gilman and Border 2 Fires –– the latter of which is spreading through the Otay Mountain Wilderness, near the US-Mexico border, at a “moderate rate,” according to Cal Fire.
The Border 2 Fire doubled in acreage Thursday evening –– spreading across 300 acres to 600 acres in about an hour. There are currently no threats to civilians, though Cal Fire declared that the fire is a threat to critical communication infrastructure.
The rain forecast comes on the tail end of another red flag warning period that prompted nearly 100,000 power customers to have their electricity shut off as a precaution Thursday.
Trump threatened to withhold aid, plans visit to California
President Donald Trump is expected to travel to California on Friday and also pay a visit to western North Carolina, where there is widespread damage from Hurricane Helene.
Trump previously threatened to withhold aid to California, saying state officials need to change how they manage water. On Wednesday, the president told Fox News, “I don’t think we should give California anything until they let the water run down.”
Speaking to NewsNation, California Attorney General Rob Bonta said placing conditions on aid to a state suffering from a natural disaster is a “great mistake.”
“The president ran for president to be the president of the United States of America, not just the red states of America. Doesn’t matter what party preference the state has,” he said, adding he hopes Trump will reconsider aiding California after seeing the devastation from the fires firsthand.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said following a news briefing Thursday, during which he signed a pair of bills allocating $2.5 billion in state recovery, “I look forward to being there on the tarmac to thank the president, welcome him and we’re making sure that all the resources he needs for a successful briefing are provided to him. There’s no limit to the resources we’ll provide for that briefing.”
Newsom told reporters he did not receive any communication from the White House about Trump’s visit, but that he is “glad” the president accepted the governor’s invitation.
Many have memories of past slides
Forecasters are not anticipating the level of rainfall that prompted some of the region’s most destructive land flows of the recent past. The community of Montecito in Santa Barbara County was virtually destroyed after a powerful winter storm immediately followed the Thomas Fire – at the time, the largest fire in state history. Twenty-three people were killed.
Even without devastation wrought by wildfires, the unique geography of southern California leaves some areas in constant danger of land instability.
The coastal city of Rancho Palos Verdes experienced the sudden movement of a decades-old complex of slow-moving landslides last fall, twisting roads and putting multimillion-dollar homes on the brink of destruction. The city has invested millions of dollars into “dewatering wells,” sucking more than 112 million gallons of destabilizing water out of the ground in a desperate effort to shore up neighborhoods.
A preview of the worst-case scenario for the coming rains could be seen in the Palisades two weeks ago, when one oceanview home that survived the wildfire was split in half by a mudslide, apparently triggered by runoff from the water used to fight the fire.
“There are mud and debris flow hazards that exist even when it’s not raining,” Los Angeles County Public Works director Mark Pestrella said last week.
CNN’s Brandon Miller, Holly Yan and Lauren Mascarenhas contributed to this report.
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